Hi Marcus -

Chiming in a little late, but...

I have to agree with everyone below mostly in that your have to look more neighborhood specific.
I would assume based on your criteria, you are looking between $150-200k, and believe it or not, in this pice range days on the market is close to 70. 75007 is a great location, we have had most recently 2 bidding wars on homes in this area. Of course we stage our homes to sell. Due to the fact that there is a lot of inventory, buyer can choose to be a little more picky about their final choice.

But to answer your question, 10-15% is most likely too low to offer - IF the home is priced well. A market analysis is key, as the more fair your offer is, the more the sellers will be wiling to negotiate.

Hope this helps!

There's a lot of good advice below, so I won't repeat it. The one thing that does bother me though, and a couple of them touched on it, is this issue of homes selling at 95% or so of their list price. There are two big problems with that:

First assume there are 20 houses listed on January 1, pretty much comparable. Five of them come on the market for $300,000. Fifteen come on at $330,000. Six months later, five homes have sold...the ones priced at $300,000. They sold at 95% of list, or $285,000. And so we have the statistic that homes that sold in this market sold for 95% of list. True. But misleading, since someone hearing that statistic might come along and figure that $330,000 home is "worth" 95% of that, or $313,500. No way.

Also, watch out for price reductions and seller subsidies. Maybe a $300,000 home sold for $285,000. But there was a $7,000 seller subsidy/contribution...and the house was originally listed for $330,000. So, in actuality, a $330,000 initially-listed home sold for a net of $278,000. That's 84% of list, even though "statistics" could suggest it's 95%.

So watch out for those numbers. As Bruce says, was the price right to begin with? How long has it been on market? And so on.

Good luck.

The problem is trends are city wide or area wide and all real estate is local. In my opinion you just have to look at each home and the situation. Is it occupied or vacant. Do you know why or where they are moving? How long has the person been in the house? Is it priced right to start with. How hard are you to please. Have you looked at 100 houses and all look fine to you or is this the 1 in a million. These and so many other factors come in to play. If you need help determining what to offer or what's an appropriate price and you don't already have a realtor helping you with the process, please call me. I'd be glad to help you.

There are about 100 homes in the 75007 area that match the criteria you describe ranging from 105K to 550K... Obviously the higher you go in price, the more you can negotiate...

Homes under $200k since August 1 are averaging about 73 Days on Market and getting about 98% of list price. Again this won't help you much because it really depends on what subdivision, condition etc. Like Glenn said, general statistics are not the best. Homes with pools or golf course lots may be averaging 7 days on market and homes without may be at 90 days on the market which is going to skew the numbers, so if you are looking at a golf course lot, there may be multiple offers and you may need to bid at or above asking for example and the statistics really wouldn't help. Hope this clears things up a little.

There is really no rule of thumb on how much homes are selling for. It is all over the map, it depends on how it's priced to begin with. If the condition is good and it's priced right, it will sell very close to asking price.

It is always on a case by case basis, a market analysis has to be done to dertermine how it is priced, based on condition, location, amenities, then you decide how much it's worth to you and then decide what you want to offer.

My experience is that most buyers don't want to make an offer on that ugly, over-priced home that has been sitting there for quite a while. They want to make an offer on the beautiful home that is well priced and just went on the market.

If you are wanting to buy a specific house then you should be able to tell which one of these that you are interested in.

General statistics can not tell you what will happen in a specific one time event (buying a specific house) in part because of these variables and in part because each seller is different.

In Arlington, just a few miles away the average over the last 20 years is that homes sell for about 96% of the price they were listed at at the time they went under contract. This does not seem to vary from year to year that much. Instead I find sellers are forced to price their homes within the correct range before any buyers consider making an offer.

Neglected to mention that I'm looking for a 3/2/2, 1800+ square feet, no pool. One or two-story is fine in the 75007 area.

Well it kind of depends are you looking for a 3/2/2 or a 2 bedroom, or are you just talking all homes in general? If you email me what you are looking at I can email you a market analysis for the last 6 month in that zip code which will be far more accurate. We need to compare apples to apples. Carlos@CarlosDFW.com